Lagged socio - ecological responses to climate 1 and range shifts in fisheries

24 While previous research has documented marine fish and invertebrates shifting poleward 25 in response to warming climates, less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. By 26 examining fisheries in the northeastern United States over the last four decades of warming 27 temperatures, we show that northward shifts in species distributions were matched by 28 corresponding northward shifts in fisheries. The proportion of warm-water species caught in most 29 states also increased through time. Most importantly, however, fisheries shifted only 10-30% as 30 much as their target species, and evidence suggested that economic and regulatory constraints 31 played important roles in creating these lags. These lags may lead to overfishing and population 32 declines if not accounted for in fisheries management and climate adaptation. In coupled natural33 human systems such as fisheries, human actions play important roles in determining the 34 sustainability of the system and, therefore, future conservation and climate mitigation planning 35 will need to consider not only biophysical changes, but also human responses to these changes and 36 the feedbacks that these responses have on ecosystems. 37